Winning results

Serie B, round 9. Ascoli sit 4th on 15 points with the best defence in the division (6 conceded in 8) and come off a stunning 6-1 win at Catanzaro; at home they beat Benevento (1-0) and Avellino (3-1) and drew with Empoli. Sampdoria are 19th on 5 points (1 win, 16 conceded), lost at home to Arezzo and 4-1 at Avellino and are still winless away. At 2.25 (Pinnacle 2.24) Ascoli are priced like an even game: we rate the home win at 47%, keeping the stake modest because of Sampdoria's squad quality on paper.

• Ascoli vs Sampdoria✓ 2-0
  Serie B
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 2.25

  Why: Ascoli 4W 3D 1L, 14 scored 6 conceded, fresh from a 6-1 at Catanzaro. Sampdoria 1W 2D 5L, 16 conceded, 1 point from their last 3 away games. Odds 2.24-2.25 (Pinnacle/Parimatch).

Serie A's form team (unbeaten, 4 away wins out of 4, 5 conceded in 8) priced above 2.00 against a fading Sassuolo who lost their last two. The market prices Sassuolo's home solidity and possible rotation: we rate the away win at 50%.

• Sassuolo vs Lazio✓ 2-6
  Serie A
  What to bet: 2 · 1X2@ 2.15

  Why: Lazio are unbeaten (7W 1D, 16 scored, 5 conceded), level on top with Inter, have won all 4 away games (Bologna 1-0, Udinese 2-1, Venezia 2-0, Juventus 3-0) and arrive on a 4-game winning run. Sassuolo have lost their last 2 (including at Como) and 3 of the last 4, conceding 16 in 8; they are solid at the Mapei (wins over Torino and Juventus, draw with Milan), which keeps the price high. Lazio miss Rovella, Marusic, Gudmundsson; Sassuolo miss Boloca, Idzes, Leysen, Kone. Lazio won 5 of the last 7 H2H and around 10,000 Lazio fans are expected. At 2.15 (46.5% implied) we estimate 50%: moderate value.

The league's worst away side (0 wins in 15 away games, one goal or fewer in 15 of their last 20) against a Coritiba side winless in six and short of goals: a low-scoring profile. Under 2.5 at 1.88 with an estimated 57% probability, edge +7%. Check the price, as the Brazilian market is less liquid.

• Coritiba vs Gremio✓ 0-1
  Brasileirao Serie A
  What to bet: Under 2.5 · Over/Under 2.5@ 1.88

  Why: Gremio sit 18th on 31 points, winless in 7 and the worst travellers in the Brasileirao: zero wins in 15 away games (5 draws, 10 defeats), only 34 goals in 31 matches and at most one goal scored in 15 of their last 20. They also miss Kannemann (suspended), Nardoni, Danilo Barbosa and Jovane. Coritiba are 12th on 39 points but winless in 6, score 1.2 goals per game and lose midfielder Thiago Santos to suspension. Two sides in a results crisis, with plenty to lose and low scoring rates: expected total goals around 2.4, Under 2.5 estimated at 57% against the 53% implied by 1.88 (bet365 -111 both sides).

A pick against the market (Over priced 1.64) backed by the numbers: Hull play a cautious 5-4-1, 4 of their 7 games stayed under 2.5, at home they drew 0-0 with Aston Villa and beat Manchester United 1-0, and at Fulham they had no shot on target. Brentford travel without Janelt and Yarmoliuk, both suspended after red cards against Liverpool, i.e. without their two first-choice central midfielders, with Collins and Jensen just back from injury; away they have drawn all three games (5 scored, 5 conceded). Hull games average 2.1 goals. We estimate 50% for Under against odds of 2.19 (46% implied).

• Hull City vs Brentford✓ 1-1
  Premier League
  What to bet: Under 2.5 · Over/Under 2.5@ 2.19

  Why: Defensive Hull (2.1 goals per game), Brentford without both suspended starting midfielders and 3 draws in 3 away.

The unbeaten, in-form leaders face a PSV side missing six squad players (every natural striker out) with Perisic as an emergency centre-forward. PSV's head-to-head record keeps the price generous: double chance at 1.85 with an estimated 56% probability, edge about +4%.

• PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord✓ 1-1
  Eredivisie
  What to bet: X2 · Double Chance@ 1.85

  Why: Feyenoord lead with 23 points from 9, unbeaten, 31 scored and 10 conceded, five straight league wins; PSV are third on 19. PSV are in full crisis mode: Mijnans suspended, Schouten (midfield anchor), Plea, Lammers, Wanner and Nagalo out, Pepi doubtful and Perisic as a makeshift striker. Feyenoord only miss Bos and Beelen; Van Bronckhorst confirmed no new injuries after Seville and Moder and Watanabe are back in training. Against: PSV have won the last 5 head-to-heads and come off a 1-0 win in Porto. The market gives PSV about 48%; we estimate 44%, so 'Feyenoord not to lose' is worth about 56% against an implied 54%.

Two of the league's weakest attacks, a Venezia side winless away in 29 games and the psychological weight of a six-pointer all point to a low-scoring game. Odds 1.83 against an estimated 58% probability: edge +6%.

• Genoa vs Venezia✓ 1-0
  Serie A
  What to bet: Under 2.5 · Over/Under 2.5@ 1.83

  Why: Relegation six-pointer between two blunt attacks: Genoa (4 points, 5 goals in 7) have the fewest shots on target in Serie A (20); Venezia (3 points, 6 goals) are winless away for 29 league games (10 draws, 19 defeats) and miss Busio, Franjic, Sverko, Adorante, Correia and Bella-Kotchap. Nicola has made Venezia solid (1-0 v Napoli) and De Rossi spoke of 'maximum attention' in a game that 'is worth a lot': the setting for a cagey match. 4 of Genoa's 7 and 4 of Venezia's 7 games went Under 2.5; expected total goals around 2.3-2.4. Genoa's earlier home game against another struggler (1-1 v Frosinone) fits the script. BetMines' model gives Over 2.5 only 44%.

Arsenal have the best defence in the Premier League (5 conceded, 4 clean sheets in 7) and score 1.6 per game; their matches average 2.3 goals. Moyes' Everton are a draw machine: 3 away games, 3 draws (1-1, 0-0, 2-2), 8 scored and 7 conceded overall, 2.1 goals per game. Recent meetings at the Emirates were mostly Unders (2-0, 0-0, 1-0). Arsenal return from Wednesday's 2-2 in Munich and miss Saliba, but play patiently against low blocks. The market prices Under 2.5 at 48%; we estimate 55%, hence the edge at 2.00.

• Arsenal vs Everton✓ 2-0
  Premier League
  What to bet: Under 2.5 · Over/Under 2.5@ 2.00

  Why: Best defence in the league against an Everton side drawing every away game with few goals; Emirates meetings are usually Unders.