Winning results

De Zerbi's Tottenham have yet to score in the Premier League: 0 goals in 3 rounds, an average xG of just 0.92, with Kulusevski, Odobert and Xavi Simons out long term and Maddison a doubt with a shoulder problem. Everton arrive unbeaten but with a bare-bones squad after a slow window: 18 senior outfield players and just ONE recognised centre-forward after Beto and Ndiaye left. Spurs' games have produced only 5 goals in 3 rounds. Risk: Everton are averaging 1.67 goals a game, so we keep the stake low.

• Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton✓ 0-0
  Premier League
  What to bet: Under 2.5 · Over/Under 2.5@ 1.91

  Why: Tottenham 0 goals in 3 games (xG 0.92) with three attackers unavailable; Everton down to one recognised centre-forward. Expected total around 2.45 goals: the under at 1.91 offers value.

Two devastating attacks and a home defence that is anything but secure. Bosz's PSV lead the Eredivisie with 45 goals in 13 rounds but have conceded in each of their last five matches; Shakhtar have scored 37 in the same number of games and arrive on a five-match away winning run. Seven of PSV's last eight home games produced at least three goals. On top of that PSV lose Junior to suspension, precisely in defence.

• PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk✓ 1-1
  Champions League
  What to bet: GG · Goal/NoGoal@ 1.65

  Why: Odds of 1.65 imply 60.6%; with PSV conceding in five straight games and Shakhtar confident on the road we estimate 63%. Estimated edge +4%.

Allegri's Napoli sit 20th in Serie A with one win in five and a heavy defensive emergency: Buongiorno, Beukema and Marianucci are out, plus Giovane with a hernia and McTominay sidelined for about a month after heart surgery. Arsenal arrive with four wins in five, unbeaten in their last 15 Champions League matches in normal time with 9 clean sheets and just 7 goals conceded, and have won 3 of the 4 previous meetings. The Gunners have absentees too (Saliba, Mosquera doubtful) but the gap in form and structure remains wide.

• Napoli vs Arsenal✓ 0-1
  Champions League
  What to bet: 2 · 1X2@ 1.80

  Why: Odds of 1.80 imply 55.6%: we estimate 58% given Napoli's defensive emergency and Arsenal's European record. None of the five CBS expert predictions has Napoli winning.

The most striking structural stat of the round: Liverpool are 17 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 18 home group/league-phase Champions League games, and they have won the last three meetings with Atletico (most recently 3-2 at Anfield in September 2025). The Reds come in off a 2-0 win over Ipswich with no fresh injury concerns beyond the long-term absentees (Ekitike, Bradley, Leoni). Atletico by contrast were hammered 0-3 by Athletic Club in LaLiga at the weekend and have obvious problems up front: Sorloth unavailable, Ortiz suspended, leaving Julian Alvarez to carry the line alone. The market prices Liverpool at 1.73, i.e. 57.8% gross and roughly 55% net of margin: we estimate 60% given the Anfield record and Atletico's slump, an edge of +3.8%. We discarded Over 2.5 at 1.63: with an expected total of about 3.0 goals the probability is 58% while the price requires 61%.

• Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid✓ 2-1
  Champions League
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 1.73

  Why: Liverpool are 17W-0D-1L in their last 18 home group-phase games and have won three in a row against Atletico. The visitors arrive off a 0-3 loss at Athletic Club, without Sorloth (injured) and Ortiz (suspended).

The best value-to-risk selection of the round. The decisive piece of news is confirmed by several independent outlets: Victor Osimhen went off in the 33rd minute against Basaksehir and scans revealed a moderate-to-advanced strain of the right adductor group with bleeding; Galatasaray have officially ruled him out of their Champions League opener and expect him back only after the international break. Losing their leading scorer (9 goals) for a European opener away from home is a huge blow: Deniz Gul and Baris Alper Yilmaz will lead the line instead. Galatasaray's away form is their real weakness too (5 defeats in their last 10 on the road). Sporting, the Portuguese champions, have taken 10 points from 12 domestically and are a fortress: 5 consecutive home wins, 17 victories in their last 20 at the Alvalade, 2.9 goals scored per game. The market prices Sporting at 52.6% (1.90), which net of the margin is worth about 50%: our estimate is 55%, an edge of +4.5%.

• Sporting CP vs Galatasaray✓ 3-1
  Champions League
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 1.90

  Why: Osimhen officially out for 2-3 weeks (right adductor strain): Galatasaray lose 9 goals of production and have 5 defeats in their last 10 away games. Sporting have 10 points from 12 domestically, 5 straight home wins and 17 victories in their last 20 at the Alvalade.

The market prices the Over at 1.65 and leaves the Under around 2.20: the clearest discrepancy of the round. Porto have won their opening five games scoring 11 and conceding just one, and Under 2.5 has landed in 7 of their last 8 home matches; both teams have scored in only 1 of Porto's last 7 games. With Samu Aghehowa and Zaidu injured and Bednarek suspended the Portuguese attack is patched up, while Maresca's City play at a slow tempo with 65% possession. The previous meeting at the Dragao ended 0-0 and City won only 2 of 5 European away games last season.

• Porto vs Manchester City✓ 0-2
  Champions League
  What to bet: Under 2.5 · Over/Under 2.5@ 2.20

  Why: We estimate about 2.5 total expected goals (City ~1.6, Porto ~0.9): Under probability sits near 52% against the 45% implied by the price. Estimated edge +14%.