Winning results

Alexandersson's Rosenborg have turned the corner: three straight wins (2-1 vs Molde, 3-0 vs Kristiansund, 3-0 at Kristiansand) and Lerkendal is a factor again. Fredrikstad sit below them and are still winless on the road this season. Best price 1.79 with a true probability estimated around 57%: a thin but positive edge, suited to a prudent single.

• Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad✓ 4-0
  Eliteserien
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 1.79

  Why: Three straight wins and fresh momentum under the new coach, against a Fredrikstad side still winless away in 2026.

Leaders Viking (11 wins in their last 12) score in virtually every game, but Aalesund also play open football at home: all of Aalesund's last 6 league matches ended with both teams scoring, and two independent models put BTTS between 71% and 80%. Viking conceded again in their recent 2-1 over Lillestrom. We avoid the 1X2 (1.48 on the away win, no value) and take BTTS, which pays better than the true risk.

• Aalesund vs Viking✓ 1-1
  Eliteserien
  What to bet: GG · Goal/NoGoal@ 1.53

  Why: BTTS in Aalesund's last 6, Viking scoring everywhere but conceding: models at 71-80% versus 65% implied by the odds.

Sarpsborg 08 are unbeaten in 4 league games (3 wins, including 1-0 over leaders Viking and victories against Brann and Molde) and are unbeaten in 6 meetings with HamKam, winning the last 3 league H2Hs. HamKam are winless in 4 and coming off a 0-3 at Bodo/Glimt. Home absences to monitor (Rosted, Carstensen), but at 1.77 the market (56% implied) slightly undervalues the form gap.

• Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam✓ 1-0
  Eliteserien
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 1.77

  Why: Excellent form (beat Viking, Brann and Molde), H2H dominance and a struggling opponent: modest but real value on the home win.

High-intensity Ohio derby: Cincinnati just won 4-3 against Vancouver with Evander on 10 goals for the season, Columbus score a lot (41) but concede plenty (36). The last derby ended 4-2 and both teams play to win: BTTS at 1.75 sits above our estimate.

• Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati✓ 2-1
  MLS
  What to bet: GG · Goal/NoGoal@ 1.75

  Why: Two in-form attacks (Cincinnati won 4-3 midweek, Evander 10 goals; Columbus 41 scored) and leaky defences (Columbus conceded 36). Last derby finished 4-2: both teams to score is the most likely outcome in a historically goal-rich derby.

Internacional have not won in Curitiba since 2014: 7 straight away games without a win against Athletico (5 defeats). They arrive without first-choice keeper Rochet and Alan Rodriguez, after a home loss to Cruzeiro and the sale of Borre. At 2.00, Scolari's Athletico home edge holds value.

• Athletico Paranaense vs Internacional✓ 2-0
  Brasileirao Serie A
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 2.00

  Why: Overwhelming home H2H (Inter winless in Curitiba for 7 games, 5 losses), Athletico 5th in the table, Inter missing Rochet and Alan Rodriguez and coming off a home defeat to Cruzeiro. The 2.00 price exceeds our estimated true probability.

Miami travel without Messi and De Paul (post-World Cup rest), but arrive on a five-game winning run and sit second in the East. Montreal are 13th, winless since early May and have already conceded 32 goals. Luis Suarez leads the attack with 8 goals in 704 minutes. At 2.01 we estimate 53%: +6% edge. Messi's absence is already priced into the odds.

• CF Montreal vs Inter Miami✓ 0-1
  MLS
  What to bet: 2 · 1X2@ 2.01

  Why: Miami are second in the East on a five-game winning run with Suarez in form; Montreal are 13th, winless since May with 32 goals conceded.

Odds of 2.00 look too big for a Lanus side that beat San Lorenzo in both meetings this season (3-2 away in January, 2-1 at home in October) and play at La Fortaleza. El Ciclon remain mired in their institutional crisis and lost both recent head-to-heads: the market is underrating the Granate's home edge.

• Lanus vs San Lorenzo✓ 1-0
  Argentina Primera Division
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 2.00

  Why: Lanus won the last two H2H and face a San Lorenzo in crisis; at 2.00 the estimated edge is above 7%.

Racing open the Clausura at home against Gimnasia: la Academia closed the previous tournament with a 4-1 win over Defensa y Justicia and want a fast start in front of their fans. Gimnasia also have the Copa Argentina on their mind (last-16 tie vs Riestra). Note the contrarian stat: Gimnasia have won the recent head-to-heads, so we stay prudent with 57% at 1.82 (+4% edge) and a reduced stake.

• Racing Club vs Gimnasia La Plata✓ 2-1
  Argentina Primera Division
  What to bet: 1 · 1X2@ 1.82

  Why: Racing confident after the 4-1 over Defensa and strong at the Cilindro; Gimnasia distracted by the Copa Argentina, though the recent H2H favours them.

Twente are very strong at home (2 home defeats since October 2025) and welcome back Weghorst up front, but lose first-choice keeper Unnerstall and centre-back Hilgers to injury. Ferencvaros arrive match-sharp: a 5-1 aggregate win over Vojvodina and 3 wins plus a draw in new boss Borbely's first 4 games. Attacking sides, early-season patched-up defenses: BTTS at 1.89 holds value (Sports Mole predicts 1-1).

• Twente vs Ferencvaros✓ 1-2
  UEFA Europa League Qualifying
  What to bet: GG · Goal/NoGoal@ 1.89

  Why: Twente missing Unnerstall and Hilgers at the back but with Weghorst up top; Ferencvaros in match rhythm and prolific in qualifying. Both teams to score estimated at 57%.